The Detroit Tigers handed the Miami Marlins a 6-1 defeat at Comerica Park on April 11, 2026, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a modest 54% home win probability into a certainty by game's end. Detroit built its advantage early, scoring two runs in the first inning and three more in the third to establish a commanding cushion that Miami never threatened to close. The Marlins managed their lone run in the top of the fourth but finished with six hits and two errors, a combination that kept them from generating any sustained pressure against a Tigers pitching staff that controlled the game wire to wire.
The decisive blow came in the bottom of the third when Riley Greene connected on a home run off Marlins starter Janson Junk, a swing that shifted win probability by 17.7 percentage points and effectively settled the competitive question of the afternoon. Greene finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer, posting a WPA of plus-19.3% and a RE24 of plus-3.6 on the day. Miami's best offensive moment arrived in the top of the fourth when Otto Lopez doubled off Casey Mize, generating a 7.4-point swing in the Marlins' favor and earning Lopez a final WPA of plus-11.9% and a RE24 of plus-1.8. Heriberto Hernández added a WPA of plus-5.6% to round out Miami's top contributors, though those efforts proved far too isolated to alter the outcome.
On the mound, Casey Mize was Detroit's most valuable arm, finishing with a WPA of plus-13.6% as he repeatedly extinguished Marlins threats, including a pop out from Graham Pauley in the second that cost Miami 6.7 percentage points of win probability and a Pauley groundout in the sixth worth another minus-4.4%. Drew Anderson followed with a WPA of plus-9.3%, and John King contributed plus-0.7% in relief. The Tigers' pitching staff held Miami's offense to a single run on six hits, with the DiamondIQ model reflecting the one-sided nature of the game as it moved to 100% Detroit confidence well before the final out.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.