The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Los Angeles Angels 7-3 at Great American Ball Park on April 11, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. Cincinnati did the bulk of its damage early, plating four runs in the first inning and adding one more in the second to build a lead the Angels never meaningfully threatened. Los Angeles managed single-run frames in the third and fourth but could not sustain any offensive pressure, finishing with just five hits and one error against a Reds pitching staff that held firm through the late innings.
The game's most consequential swings came in the first two innings. A Bryce Teodosio groundout into a double play in the top of the second off Brandon Williamson carried a negative 11.9 percent win-probability impact for the Angels, effectively snuffing out any realistic threat to Cincinnati's early cushion. Mike Trout's double off Williamson in the fourth was the Angels' lone bright moment, generating a positive 11.7 percent swing, though it came far too late to alter the game's trajectory. On the Cincinnati side, a Ke'Bryan Hayes groundout in the first inning registered a 7.1 percent win-probability gain, reflecting just how damaging that opening frame was to the Angels' prospects. A Vaughn Grissom double-play grounder off Graham Ashcraft in the seventh added another negative 7.8 percent swing for Los Angeles, closing the door further.
Among individual performers, Elly De La Cruz led Reds batters with a plus-8.5 percent WPA and a 2.1 RE24, while Trout paced the Angels with a plus-12.2 percent WPA and a 2.0 RE24 despite the losing effort. Zach Neto contributed a plus-8.7 percent WPA for Los Angeles. Cincinnati's pitching staff shared the honors evenly, with Pierce Johnson and Brent Suter each posting plus-11.7 percent WPA marks and Tony Santillan adding plus-8.1 percent, a collective performance that confirmed the model's decisive late-game lean toward the Reds.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.