The Los Angeles Dodgers walked off the Texas Rangers 8-7 on April 10, 2026, at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium in a game that swung dramatically in both directions before Max Muncy settled it with a home run in the bottom of the ninth off Jacob Latz, a swing worth 45.9 percentage points of win probability and the single most impactful play of the night. The DiamondIQ model had opened with a 54 percent home win probability before first pitch, but by the final out that figure had reached 100 percent.
The lead changed hands in a chaotic final two innings. Texas appeared to seize control in the top of the ninth against Edwin Díaz, with Ezequiel Duran's single serving as the catalyst for a three-run frame worth 33.4 percentage points of win probability, giving the Rangers a late cushion that briefly made a Dodger comeback look remote. The game's earlier turning point came in the top of the third, when Corey Seager connected for a home run off Tyler Glasnow that shifted win probability by 28.9 points in Texas's favor, while Andy Pages's double in the bottom of the sixth off Robert Garcia added 23.6 points for Los Angeles and kept the Dodgers within reach. A potential Dodger rally in the bottom of the fifth was blunted when Will Smith grounded into a double play off Kumar Rocker, a sequence that cost Los Angeles 20.0 points of win probability.
Muncy finished as the game's most valuable offensive contributor with a cumulative WPA of plus-62.1 percent and an RE24 of plus-3.0, while Pages was close behind at plus-47.5 percent WPA and a game-best plus-3.8 RE24. Duran, despite pitching for the losing side, posted plus-28.2 percent WPA on the strength of his ninth-inning work. In relief, Tanner Scott led Dodger pitchers with a plus-10.8 percent WPA, followed by Alex Vesia at plus-8.5 percent and Jalen Beeks at plus-5.4 percent, a trio that collectively preserved enough of the deficit for Muncy's walk-off to matter.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.