The San Diego Padres outlasted the Colorado Rockies 7-3 in a marathon twelve-inning affair at Petco Park on April 9, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the game's end. Through nine innings the two clubs were knotted, and the extra frames proved equally tense before San Diego blew the contest open in the bottom of the twelfth. Colorado had actually generated its own momentum in the eleventh, when Brett Sullivan's double off Jeremiah Estrada shifted win probability 31.3 percentage points in the Rockies' favor, giving Colorado a foothold that briefly threatened to extend the game on Padres terms. That advantage evaporated quickly, as Ramón Laureano struck out against Brennan Bernardino in the bottom half, swinging win probability 26.9 points back toward San Diego.
The decisive sequence arrived in the bottom of the eleventh, where Gavin Sheets delivered a single off Bernardino worth 45.5 percentage points of win probability, and Luis Campusano followed with a double off the same pitcher that added another 44.1 points, together erasing Colorado's lead and setting the stage for the Padres' runaway twelfth. A Brenton Doyle fielder's choice out in the top of the twelfth, costing Colorado 23.5 win-probability points off David Morgan, effectively closed the door on any Rockies comeback.
Fernando Tatis Jr. led all position players by WPA at plus 46.8 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.1, edging Campusano, who finished at plus 44.1 percent and an identical plus 1.1 RE24. Sheets rounded out the top three offensive contributors at plus 32.6 percent WPA. On the pitching side, Jaden Hill paced the staff with a plus 20.4 percent WPA, followed by Mason Miller at plus 13.5 and Randy Vásquez at plus 13.0, a collective effort that held Colorado to three runs and preserved a hard-fought win that required the full twelve innings to secure.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.