The New York Mets walked off the Arizona Diamondbacks 4-3 in ten innings on April 7, 2026, at Citi Field, erasing a deficit that had looked critical through the middle frames. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with a 54 percent home win probability for New York and closed at 100 percent as the Mets ended it in the bottom of the tenth.
Arizona appeared to seize control in the top of the fifth, the inning responsible for the D-backs' entire scoring output. Nolan Arenado's double off Huascar Brazobán was the single most damaging offensive swing of the game from Arizona's perspective, shifting win probability 18.0 points in the visitors' favor, and Adrian Del Castillo followed with a single that added another 14.7 points. The Diamondbacks pushed three runs across in that frame and then went quiet, managing no additional runs over the final five innings as New York's bullpen — led by Devin Williams, Luis García, and Freddy Peralta, who contributed 13.5, 12.6, and 12.1 WPA respectively — methodically shut them down. Paul Sewald entered with Arizona's season on the line in the tenth but could not hold it.
The Mets' comeback unfolded steadily before culminating in the decisive bottom of the tenth. Francisco Lindor had been the offensive engine across the lineup, finishing with a game-high 0.7 RE24 and 15.5 WPA, while Ronny Mauricio's single off Sewald in the tenth registered a 16.4-point win-probability swing to set the stage. Bo Bichette then ended it with a groundout — counterintuitive in result but enormous in context — that carried a 19.5-point swing, the largest single play of the game, as New York pushed across the winning run under the automatic runner rule. The DiamondIQ model favors New York's bullpen management as the structural difference, with Tim Tawa's strikeout against Luke Weaver in the top of the tenth adding 14.3 points of cushion before the Mets walked it off.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.