Milwaukee Brewers at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 3-2 at Fenway Park on April 7, 2026, in a game that was largely a pitching duel before Boston broke through decisively in the bottom of the sixth. The Red Sox entered with a 54 percent pre-game win probability according to the DiamondIQ model, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100 percent. All three Boston runs came in that pivotal sixth inning, with Trevor Story's double off DL Hall serving as the key blow, swinging win probability by plus-17.2 percent and proving to be the turning point of the contest.

Milwaukee mounted a legitimate threat in the seventh, stringing together a hit by pitch to David Hamilton and a walk to Blake Perkins off Garrett Crochet to chip away at the deficit and pull within one. Hamilton's hit by pitch added 12.1 percent to the Brewers' win probability, while Perkins' walk contributed another 11.8 percent, making it a genuine comeback bid. However, the Brewers had already been hampered by a Luis Matos ground-into-double-play in the fourth that cost them 10.3 percent in win probability, and they never fully recovered from leaving opportunities on the bases.

Boston's bullpen ultimately sealed the outcome. Aroldis Chapman was the most impactful arm by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, generating plus-15.2 percent win probability in his outing, with Blake Perkins grounding into a double play in the ninth to end Milwaukee's final threat at a cost of 15.7 percent. Jacob Misiorowski and Zack Kelly each contributed over 11 percent in win probability as well. Offensively, Story finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-20.0 percent to go with a plus-0.8 RE24, while Hamilton and Willson Contreras each posted plus-0.7 RE24 on their respective contributions in a game where Boston did more with fewer hits, finishing with three to Milwaukee's five.