Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies defeated the Houston Astros 5-1 at Coors Field on April 7, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Houston managed just three hits and never found sustained offensive footing, leaving Colorado to control the game through a pair of decisive power swings.

The pivotal moment came in the bottom of the fourth inning when Willi Castro connected on a home run off Mike Burrows, a swing the DiamondIQ model valued at a 21.6 percent win-probability swing that effectively seized control of the contest. Colorado extended that advantage in the seventh when Mickey Moniak went deep off Kai-Wei Teng for a 12.6 percent win-probability addition. Houston's chances were further constrained by two double-play balls in the second and third innings — Jordan Beck grounded into one off Burrows in the second, costing 5.3 percent in win probability, and Edouard Julien erased a potential threat with another in the third, a 7.9 percent swing against the Astros.

Castro finished as the game's most valuable offensive contributor with a cumulative WPA of plus-27.4 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.6, while Moniak added plus-9.8 percent WPA and TJ Rumfield contributed plus-7.1 percent. On the mound, Kyle Freeland led all pitchers with plus-17.9 percent WPA, supported by Antonio Senzatela at plus-10.5 percent, as the Colorado staff held Houston to a single run across nine innings on just three hits.