The Milwaukee Brewers took down the Boston Red Sox 8-6 at Fenway Park on April 6, 2026, handing Boston a loss despite the DiamondIQ model entering the night giving the home side a 54% chance of winning. Milwaukee finished with 11 hits and no errors against Boston's 11 hits and two costly errors, and the Brewers' bullpen ultimately made the difference in closing out a hard-fought road victory.
The game's most decisive moment came in the top of the eighth inning, when Garrett Mitchell delivered a single off Garrett Whitlock that swung win probability by 32.1 points in Milwaukee's favor, the largest single-play shift of the night. That hit was part of a two-run frame that pushed the Brewers' lead to what proved to be a cushion Boston could not overcome. Earlier, the top of the fourth inning had been a turning point in Milwaukee's favor as well, with Jake Bauers drawing a walk off Danny Coulombe worth 11.2 points of win probability and Luis Rengifo's grounded into double play costing Boston 14.6 points on the same swing. Boston did threaten in the bottom of the fourth, when Willson Contreras doubled off Brandon Woodruff to add 13.2 points for the Red Sox, and Trevor Story's groundout in the ninth added 12.0 points as Boston made a late push that fell one run short.
Mitchell led all players with a cumulative WPA of plus-36.0 and a RE24 of plus-1.3, anchoring Milwaukee's offensive contribution. Contreras paced Boston with a WPA of plus-23.8 and a RE24 of plus-3.4, while Christian Yelich contributed plus-14.2 WPA and plus-2.1 RE24 for the Brewers. Out of the bullpen, Grant Anderson led Milwaukee's relievers at plus-13.3 WPA, followed by Aaron Ashby at plus-9.8 and Jovani Morán at plus-9.5, a trio that collectively preserved the lead and brought Milwaukee's win probability from a pre-game 54% disadvantage all the way to certainty by the final out.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.