The Colorado Rockies defeated the Houston Astros 9-7 at Coors Field on April 6, 2026, in a game that swung decisively in the fifth inning. The DiamondIQ model's estimate entered the day with Colorado holding a 54% win probability, and by game's end that figure had climbed to 100% as the Rockies turned a tight contest into a comfortable home victory. Houston finished with 13 hits but committed two errors, while Colorado went errorless across nine innings with 12 hits of their own.
The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the fifth, when Colorado erupted for eight runs against Astros reliever Ryan Weiss. Troy Johnston ignited the inning with a double that added 17.9% to Colorado's win probability, and TJ Rumfield followed with a triple worth another 16.4%. Hunter Goodman's single in the same frame contributed an additional 13.6% swing, collectively burying Houston beneath a rally it could not overcome. The Astros threatened in the eighth, with Jake Meyers delivering a double off Zach Agnos that added 14.1% to Houston's win probability, but Jose Altuve grounded into a forceout in the same inning that swung 14.3% back toward Colorado and effectively ended the comeback.
On the individual side, Cam Smith led all players with a 27.7% WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.4, while Johnston finished at plus-23.1% WPA with the same RE24 figure. Meyers was the standout for Houston at plus-19.5% WPA despite the loss. On the mound, Juan Mejia was the most valuable arm in the game by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a 29.3% WPA in relief for Colorado, with Cody Bolton adding 17.1% in support. The model leans toward crediting the fifth-inning eruption and Mejia's performance as the defining factors in Colorado's two-run victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.