San Diego Padres at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 2 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres defeated the Boston Red Sox 8-6 at Fenway Park on April 5, 2026, in a game that swung decisively away from the home side despite the DiamondIQ model opening with a 54% pre-game win probability in Boston's favor. The Padres built their lead in two pivotal bursts, first with a four-run third inning and then with a three-run fourth, before the biggest single play of the night arrived in the top of the fifth. Manny Machado connected on a home run off Greg Weissert that shifted win probability by 34.7 percentage points in San Diego's favor, effectively separating the Padres from any serious threat of a Boston comeback at that stage. The Red Sox did push back in the bottom of the seventh, when Masataka Yoshida laced a double off Wandy Peralta that added 24.5 percentage points to Boston's win probability, briefly reinvigorating the home crowd. Jackson Merrill then answered in the top of the eighth with a home run off Tyler Uberstine worth 18.7 percentage points, and when Mason Miller struck out Willson Contreras in the bottom of the ninth — a play worth 14.4 percentage points to San Diego — the door closed entirely on Boston's chances.
Among position players, Yoshida led all batters in WPA at plus-35.9 with a RE24 of plus-2.8, making him the most impactful hitter in the box score despite being on the losing side. Machado finished at plus-31.6 WPA and plus-2.5 RE24, while Merrill contributed plus-25.4 WPA and plus-1.3 RE24 to anchor the Padres' offensive case. On the mound, Jeremiah Estrada was San Diego's most valuable arm by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting plus-23.3 WPA, with Bradgley Rodriguez adding plus-12.2 and Danny Coulombe contributing plus-7.9 in support. The Padres committed no errors against Boston's two, and San Diego's 12 hits to Boston's nine reflected a cleaner and more efficient offensive performance from the visitors throughout. The model's final win probability for Boston settled at 0%, a complete reversal from where the night began.