Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Chicago Cubs 6-5 on April 4, 2026, at Progressive Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by the final out. The game was largely a pitchers' duel through five innings before erupting in the sixth, and the decisive sequence came in the bottom of the eighth, where Cleveland turned a deficit into a lead it would not relinquish.

The Cubs took control in the sixth inning when Dansby Swanson connected on a home run off Matt Festa, a swing that shifted win probability by +22.8 points in Chicago's favor and gave the visitors momentum heading into the later innings. Ian Happ added to that advantage with a solo home run off Shawn Armstrong in the top of the eighth, a +18.7-point swing that pushed the Cubs to what appeared to be a commanding position. Cleveland's response in the bottom of the eighth was swift and decisive. CJ Kayfus delivered a single off Jacob Webb that moved the needle +11.4 points, then Gabriel Arias followed with a single of his own for another +15.1-point swing, and Kayfus capped the inning with a home run off Webb that produced the game's single biggest win-probability shift at +23.6 points, turning the game on its head entirely.

Kayfus was the clear standout of the night, finishing with a combined WPA of +35.0 and a RE24 of +2.0, both figures leading all position players. Gabriel Arias contributed meaningfully with +20.4 WPA and +1.1 RE24, while Swanson's +15.7 WPA and +1.3 RE24 represented the strongest individual performance for Chicago despite the loss. On the mound, Shota Imanaga led all pitchers with +17.8 WPA, with Parker Messick at +7.9 and Cade Smith at +6.3 contributing to Cleveland's bullpen effort down the stretch.