The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Detroit Tigers 5-3 at Comerica Park on April 5, 2026, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for Detroit and leaving the Tigers with zero percent by the final out. The Cardinals were held scoreless through four innings before a decisive fifth-inning burst against Enmanuel De Jesus changed the complexion of the game entirely. The biggest single play of the night came when catcher Iván Herrera delivered a single in the top of the fifth that shifted win probability 26.2 percent in St. Louis's favor, and Victor Scott II followed with a sacrifice bunt that added another 12.4 percent swing, underscoring how precisely the Cardinals executed situationally in that frame. St. Louis plated four runs in the inning and held a lead it would not relinquish.
Detroit had its moments, but they were not enough to overturn the Cardinals' advantage. Kerry Carpenter gave the home crowd something to react to with a third-inning home run off Kyle Leahy that represented an 18.9 percent win-probability swing, the largest positive play of the night for the Tigers. Spencer Torkelson drew a walk off George Soriano in the sixth for a 12.4 percent swing, and Torkelson finished as Detroit's top batter by WPA at plus-23.6 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.8, reflecting how much of the Tigers' offensive threat ran through him. Carpenter finished at plus-19.1 percent WPA and plus-1.7 RE24.
On the pitching side, the Cardinals' bullpen was the story of the final innings. JoJo Romero led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-23.8 percent, while Ryne Stanek contributed plus-13.3 percent as St. Louis locked down the lead. Herrera led all batters with a WPA of plus-29.1 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.3, making him the clear offensive catalyst. The Cardinals finished with six hits and no errors against Detroit's six hits and one error, with the clean fielding ultimately reflecting the steadier execution that separated the two clubs on this night.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.