Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago White Sox defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 6-3 at Rate Field on April 4, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The game remained scoreless through five innings before the sixth frame became the decisive stretch of the contest. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gave Toronto a temporary lead with a home run off Anthony Kay that swung win probability 21.8 percent in the Blue Jays' favor, the single largest positive swing of the night for either side. Chicago responded immediately in the bottom half against Brendon Little, as Munetaka Murakami hit a home run worth 19.5 percent in win probability, followed by a Colson Montgomery home run that added another 12.2 percent. The White Sox plated three runs in that inning to take a lead they would not relinquish.

Toronto briefly threatened in the seventh, but Nathan Lukes hit into a sacrifice fly double play off Jordan Hicks that swung win probability 11.3 percent against the Blue Jays, effectively ending their realistic path back. Chicago then added two more runs in the eighth, with Luisangel Acuña delivering a single off Braydon Fisher that registered a 17.8 percent win-probability swing and pushed the margin to three. Among position players, Murakami led all batters with a plus-14.9 percent WPA and plus-0.8 RE24, while Miguel Vargas posted the game's best RE24 at plus-2.0 to go with a plus-14.5 percent WPA, and Acuña finished at plus-12.5 percent WPA and plus-1.0 RE24. On the mound, Lazaro Estrada led all pitchers with a plus-15.9 percent WPA, supported by Jordan Hicks at plus-12.9 percent and Tommy Nance at plus-7.3 percent, a trio that kept Toronto's offense in check after the Blue Jays briefly showed life in the sixth and seventh innings.