Chicago White Sox at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago White Sox handed the Miami Marlins a 9-4 defeat at loanDepot park on March 30, 2026, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a 54 percent home-win probability into a complete Miami collapse, with the model's estimate sitting at zero percent by the final out. The game was effectively decided in a third inning that dismantled Marlins starter Chris Paddack, as Austin Hays deposited a home run that swung win probability 25.0 points in Chicago's favor — the single most decisive play of the afternoon. The White Sox tacked on further damage in that same frame via an Everson Pereira double worth 6.4 points of win probability and a Miguel Vargas single that added another 9.1 points, building a four-run cushion before Miami could respond. Chicago extended the lead in the fourth when Vargas went deep off Paddack again, a swing worth 8.0 points of win probability, pushing the deficit to a number the Marlins never seriously threatened to overcome.

Individually, Hays and Vargas carried the offensive load by every measure DiamondIQ tracks. Hays finished with a WPA of plus-24.8 and an RE24 of plus-2.2, his third-inning blast serving as the game's fulcrum. Vargas was even more impactful in run-environment terms, posting a WPA of plus-19.2 and an RE24 of plus-3.7 across his two extra-base contributions. Pereira rounded out the top three offensive contributors at plus-7.7 WPA. On the mound, Davis Martin was the most valuable arm by the model's accounting, generating plus-8.3 points of win probability, with Jordan Hicks and Michael Petersen providing clean, low-leverage relief behind him. Miami's final four runs were too scattered across the lineup and too late in the scoring to meaningfully alter a game Chicago had controlled since the third.