Colorado Rockies at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies pummeled the Toronto Blue Jays 14-5 at Rogers Centre on March 30, 2026, erasing the DiamondIQ model's pre-game 54 percent home win probability for Toronto and leaving the model's final estimate at zero percent. Colorado produced 17 hits and committed no errors, while Toronto's two fielding miscues proved costly in a game that effectively turned in the middle innings. The Rockies scored in five of nine frames, with the bulk of the damage concentrated in a seven-run sixth inning that put the contest out of reach.

The decisive sequence began building in the third inning, when a Jake McCarthy fielding error off Cody Ponce shifted win probability 8.8 percent toward Colorado, and George Springer answered for Toronto with a home run off Tomoyuki Sugano worth 11.2 percent in the other direction. The Rockies regained the upper hand in the fourth on a Jordan Beck fielding error off Louis Varland, a play that swung win probability 10.5 percent Colorado's way. The game broke open in the top of the sixth, when Troy Johnston launched a home run off Spencer Miles for the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 20.3 percent, and Braxton Fulford followed with a single off Brendon Little that added another 7.3 percent to Colorado's advantage.

Johnston finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 14.7 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.0, while Fulford contributed the highest RE24 among position players at plus 1.8 to go with his 7.3 percent WPA mark. Beck added plus 9.7 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 0.6. On the pitching side, Tomoyuki Sugano led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 9.4 percent despite surrendering the Springer home run, and Jaden Hill contributed plus 4.5 percent in relief. Chase Dollander finished even at 0.0 percent WPA.