New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 4-2 at Busch Stadium on March 30, 2026, handing the home team a loss despite the DiamondIQ model entering the game with a 54% win probability in favor of St. Louis. The Mets scored in four different innings, including a two-run burst in the sixth that proved to be the decisive sequence, and their pitching staff held the Cardinals to just five hits across nine innings.

The sixth inning was the turning point of the game by the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Jared Young delivered the single biggest offensive swing of the night with a double off Kyle Leahy that shifted win probability 13.6 points in the Mets' favor, and a subsequent walk drawn by Juan Soto off Matt Svanson added another 8.7 points. The Cardinals answered in the bottom half when Nolan Gorman hit a home run off Clay Holmes to cut into the deficit, a swing worth 10.1 win probability points in St. Louis's direction, but it was not enough to change the game's trajectory. Bo Bichette had also contributed a meaningful single off Leahy in the fifth, generating an 8.0-point win probability swing that built early Mets pressure.

On the mound, Clay Holmes led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-16.8, followed by Brooks Raley at plus-13.3 and Tobias Myers at plus-10.3, as the Mets' staff collectively suppressed the Cardinals' lineup. Offensively, Jorge Polanco led Mets hitters with a WPA of plus-9.7 and a RE24 of plus-0.6, with Young and Soto each contributing WPA figures of plus-7.2 and plus-6.6 respectively. The final stamp came in the bottom of the ninth when Devin Williams struck out Nathan Church, a strikeout that registered as the game's single largest win probability swing at 14.4 points, closing out a road victory that the DiamondIQ model ultimately assigned a 100% final win probability to the Mets.