The San Francisco Giants defeated the San Diego Padres 3-2 at Petco Park on March 30, 2026, completing a come-from-behind win that erased the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 54 percent home win probability down to zero by the final out. San Francisco scored all three of its runs in the third and fourth innings against Walker Buehler, then held that lead through a tense final frame that nearly slipped away in the bottom of the ninth.
The Giants built their advantage methodically against Buehler. Harrison Bader opened the scoring in the third with a home run, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 10.5 percent in San Francisco's favor. The Giants extended the lead in the fourth through a Patrick Bailey single, worth plus 9.8 percent, and a Casey Schmitt single that added another plus 7.7 percent to the Giants' win probability, pushing them to what eventually held as a two-run cushion. San Diego's best chance to turn the game came in the sixth, when Manny Machado grounded into a double play off Landen Roupp, a sequence that swung 6.5 percent away from the Padres' chances and extinguished a developing threat.
The ninth inning was the decisive sequence. The Padres scored twice off Ryan Walker to close within one, and Xander Bogaerts came to the plate representing the tying run. His groundout to end the inning registered as the game's single largest win-probability swing at plus 31.6 percent for the Giants, a number that captures how much danger San Francisco was actually in. Bogaerts finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 27.9 percent despite a RE24 of minus 0.4, reflecting how the sequence played out rather than his overall run contribution. Roupp was the standout on the mound, finishing with a plus 29.1 percent WPA, while Schmitt paced the offense with a plus 12.0 percent WPA and plus 1.4 RE24.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.