The San Diego Padres shut out the Detroit Tigers 3-0 at Petco Park on March 28, 2026, holding Detroit to just two hits and an error while the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a San Diego win climbed from a pre-game 54 percent all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The Padres did their decisive damage in the third inning, and a Detroit squad that managed little sustained offense found no way back against a San Diego pitching staff that dominated from start to finish.
The third inning proved to be the turning point the model identified most sharply. Manny Machado drew a walk off Jack Flaherty that shifted win probability 12.6 percentage points in San Diego's favor, and Fernando Tatis Jr. followed with a single that added another 8.7 points, the two plays together accounting for the bulk of the game's probability movement in a two-run frame that put the Padres ahead for good. San Diego added a run in the fifth to complete its scoring. Detroit's best moment came in the fourth, when Colt Keith drew a walk off Randy Vasquez that nudged Detroit's chances by 4.4 points, but Riley Greene's subsequent strikeout wiped most of that swing back, and Spencer Torkelson's forceout in the sixth cost the Tigers another 4.5 points as Detroit's threats repeatedly stalled.
Among individual performers, Machado led all batters with a cumulative WPA of plus-14.8 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.7, while Tatis finished at plus-10.3 percent WPA and plus-0.8 RE24 to round out the Padres' most impactful offensive contributors. On the mound, Randy Vasquez was the standout, posting a WPA of plus-24.4 percent as he kept Detroit's lineup largely at bay through his innings. Kyle Hart added plus-9.5 percent WPA in support, and Connor Seabold chipped in plus-3.3 percent. The DiamondIQ model leaned toward San Diego entering the day, and the Padres validated that lean with a clean, error-free performance against a Tigers offense that never found a foothold.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.