The Boston Red Sox blanked the Cincinnati Reds 3-0 at Great American Ball Park on March 26, 2026, holding Cincinnati to four hits across nine innings while collecting twelve of their own. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened the game with Cincinnati holding a 54 percent home win probability, a figure that eroded steadily and finished at zero. The game remained scoreless through six innings before Boston broke through in the seventh, and the Reds never answered.
The decisive swing in momentum came from Cincinnati third baseman Eugenio Suárez, whose strikeout in the bottom of the eighth against Garrett Whitlock represented the single costliest play of the game, shifting win probability 18.7 percent against the Reds. Suárez had already been the center of an earlier critical moment in the sixth, when his strikeout off Garrett Crochet cost Cincinnati another 9.9 percent in win probability. On the Boston side, Marcelo Mayer's double off Pierce Johnson in the top of the seventh opened the scoring and added 9.4 percent in win probability, while Trevor Story's single off Connor Phillips in the ninth pushed the lead to three and contributed 8.9 percent. Sal Stewart added a key sixth-inning single off Crochet worth 8.3 percent.
Among position players, Stewart led all batters with a WPA of plus-16.9 and an RE24 of plus-1.4, while Mayer contributed plus-11.7 WPA and plus-1.0 RE24. On the mound, Crochet was the most impactful arm by WPA at plus-31.0, followed closely by Andrew Abbott at plus-27.3 and Whitlock at plus-23.3, a trio that collectively smothered a Cincinnati lineup that managed no runs on an otherwise quiet evening at Great American Ball Park.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.