The New York Mets pulled away from the Pittsburgh Pirates 11-7 at Citi Field on March 26, 2026, in a game that was largely decided by the middle innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with New York as a modest 54 percent favorite before the home side's win probability climbed to 100 percent by the final out. Pittsburgh managed 10 hits and posted runs in five of nine innings, but a porous first frame and a pivotal fifth inning proved too much to overcome.
The game's most consequential sequence came in the bottom of the first, when the Mets plated five runs to establish early control. Pittsburgh clawed back in the third on a Brandon Lowe home run off Freddy Peralta that added 8.0 percentage points to the Pirates' win probability, and Henry Davis followed in the fifth with a double against Peralta that swung the needle another 12.1 points toward Pittsburgh. Those were the Pirates' most damaging blows, yet they could not fully close the gap. On the other side, Luis Robert Jr.'s single off Mason Montgomery in the bottom of the fourth registered a 7.8-point swing for New York, and Juan Soto added a 5.7-point single in the fifth off Isaac Mattson that helped the Mets extend their cushion. A Nick Gonzales groundout in the second, costing Pittsburgh 7.3 points of win probability against Peralta, illustrated how the Pirates repeatedly left opportunities unrealized in key moments.
Luis Robert Jr. was the game's most impactful individual performer, finishing with a WPA of plus-18.4 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.3, reflecting his consistent ability to drive in runs in high-leverage situations. Francisco Lindor contributed a WPA of plus-13.0 percent with an RE24 of plus-1.1, and Davis led Pittsburgh's offensive contributors at plus-9.9 percent WPA. On the mound, Freddy Peralta paced the pitching staff with a WPA of plus-3.1 percent despite surrendering both of Pittsburgh's most damaging extra-base hits, as his overall efficiency kept the Mets sufficiently ahead. Pittsburgh's late two-run ninth came too late against a New York club that had long since secured the outcome.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.