The New York Yankees handed the Chicago Cubs an 8-3 defeat at Sloan Park on March 24, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model ultimately made certain, as the Cubs' pre-game home win probability of 38 percent fell to zero by the final out. New York constructed the lead methodically, plating runs in five of nine innings and never allowing Chicago to seize control, finishing with ten hits and no errors against eight hits and no errors for the home side.
The game's decisive sequence came in the third and fourth innings, when the Yankees broke the game open against Edward Cabrera. Ben Rice's home run in the third generated the single largest win-probability swing of the afternoon at plus 10.7 percent by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, and the fourth inning brought two more long balls off Cabrera — Jasson Domínguez connecting for a plus 10.4 percent swing and Randal Grichuk following with a plus 8.9 percent swing. Those three swings alone represented the spine of the game. The Cubs briefly answered in the fifth when Miguel Amaya took Ryan Weathers deep for a plus 7.4 percent shift, but Amed Rosario's run-scoring single in the sixth off Vince Reilly, worth plus 10.5 percent, effectively closed the door on any Chicago comeback.
By individual contributions, Domínguez finished as the top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting with a plus 11.4 percent win-probability added and a plus 0.9 RE24, while Grichuk posted the strongest run-environment figure among position players at plus 1.3 RE24 alongside a plus 10.0 percent win-probability figure. Rice added plus 10.7 percent and a plus 0.8 RE24. On the pitching side, Ryan Weathers led New York's staff with a plus 9.7 percent win-probability contribution, with Zane Mills and Bradley Hanner providing negligible additional movement. The model, which opened favoring the Yankees at 62 percent, saw its lean validated completely by the final score.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.