The San Francisco Giants defeated the Sultanes de Monterrey 8-2 at Oracle Park on March 24, 2026, turning what opened as a near coin-flip into a decisive home victory. The DiamondIQ model's estimate entered the game with San Francisco holding a 54% win probability, but that figure climbed steadily throughout the evening before reaching 100% by the final out. The Giants collected nine hits against four for Monterrey, while the Sultanes also committed one error to compound their difficulties.
The pivotal moment came in the bottom of the fourth inning when Jung Hoo Lee launched a home run off Justus Sheffield, a swing that shifted win probability by plus-23.8 percentage points and served as the game's single largest play by that measure. Monterrey briefly answered in the top of the fifth when Brayan Mendoza laced a double off Landen Roupp to move the needle plus-12.4 points in the Sultanes' favor, trimming the deficit and providing their most productive offensive sequence of the afternoon. San Francisco responded immediately in the bottom half, with Christian Koss delivering a triple off Geronimo Franzua for a plus-10.6 point swing that effectively put the game back out of reach. A pair of strikeouts from Michael Fulmer in the top of the sixth — first Ismael Alcantara at minus-8.8 points and then Ricardo Genovés at minus-8.6 points — extinguished any remaining Monterrey rally and cemented the Giants' advantage.
Lee finished as the game's standout performer with a cumulative WPA of plus-25.8 and an RE24 of plus-2.6, driven almost entirely by that fourth-inning blow. Omar Renteria contributed a plus-7.3 WPA and Christian Koss added a plus-7.1 WPA to round out San Francisco's most impactful bats. On the mound, Fulmer led all pitchers with a plus-15.1 WPA, his sixth-inning work proving the most consequential pitching stretch of the game, while Chris Ellis and Alexis Vera each added modest positive contributions to close things out.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.