The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Cincinnati Reds 4-1 at American Family Field on March 24, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate supported throughout, as Milwaukee's pre-game home win probability of 56 percent climbed steadily to 100 percent by the final out. Cincinnati finished with eight hits but committed two errors and could not string together enough offense against a Brewers pitching staff that controlled the game from the second inning on.
The decisive moments came in clusters that swung the win probability sharply toward Milwaukee. Jake Bauers delivered the game's first significant blow in the bottom of the second, a home run off Chase Burns that added 7.8 percentage points of win probability and gave the Brewers an early cushion. Milwaukee extended the lead with a David Hamilton single off Burns in the fifth, a play worth 8.7 percentage points of added win probability. Elly De La Cruz briefly gave Cincinnati life with a home run off Kyle Harrison in the top of the sixth, a swing worth plus 12.1 percentage points that represented the Reds' best chance to reenter the game. The Brewers answered immediately, however, and Brandon Lockridge's single in the bottom of the seventh off Rhett Lowder proved the most consequential play of the night, adding 12.8 percentage points of win probability and effectively closing the door on any Cincinnati comeback.
On the individual side, Bauers and Lockridge each finished with plus 10.1 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.2, making them the game's co-leaders among position players, while De La Cruz checked in at plus 9.3 percent WPA for the Reds despite the loss. Kyle Harrison led all pitchers with plus 16.6 percent WPA, and Brandon Sproat contributed plus 13.3 percent, as Milwaukee's collective pitching effort kept Cincinnati's eight-hit output largely harmless across nine innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.