The Atlanta Braves defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 3-2 at CoolToday Park on March 24, 2026, in a game the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave Atlanta an 85% pre-game win probability that ultimately closed at 100%. The Braves built their margin incrementally, scoring in the third, fourth, and fifth innings while the Rays managed single runs in the second and sixth. Atlanta finished with 11 hits against Tampa Bay's 6, though both teams combined for three errors across the contest.
The game's most consequential sequence came in the bottom of the second, when Michael Harris II grounded out off Gary Gill Hill in a moment the DiamondIQ model calculated as a 14.9% swing against Atlanta's win chances, briefly tightening the outlook. The Braves answered decisively in the fourth when Mike Yastrzemski connected on a home run off Hill, a swing worth plus 11.4% in win probability that pushed Atlanta back into firm control. Tampa Bay showed signs of life in the top of the sixth, as Cooper Flemming singled off Dylan Lee for a plus 10.6% swing, but Flemming's groundout in the eighth off Blane Abeyta, paired with Taitn Gray's strikeout against Robert Suarez moments later, extinguished the Rays' final realistic path, each play costing Tampa Bay roughly 9.7 to 9.8 percentage points.
Among individual contributors, Jorge Mateo led all batters with a plus 14.2% WPA, while Drake Baldwin added plus 12.3% alongside a plus 1.1 RE24 to pace Atlanta's offensive production. Andreimi Antunez contributed plus 11.3% WPA with a plus 0.6 RE24. On the mound, Raisel Iglesias was the most impactful pitcher in the game at plus 15.2% WPA, supported by Ty Cummings at plus 10.7% and Cam Booser at plus 9.9%, a bullpen trio that collectively preserved Atlanta's narrow lead through the final frames.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.