The San Francisco Giants handled the Sultanes de Monterrey decisively on March 23, 2026, at Oracle Park, winning 10-2 in a game that began close but grew increasingly lopsided. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened at a 54 percent pre-game home win probability and closed at 100 percent as the Giants steadily seized control through the middle innings.
The decisive offensive stretch began in the bottom of the third, where the Giants plated three runs against Stephen Tarpley. Jung Hoo Lee ignited the frame with a double that added 7.9 percent to San Francisco's win probability, followed by a Jared Oliva single worth 7.0 percent and a Patrick Bailey single that contributed another 5.4 percent. Monterrey briefly responded in the top of the sixth when Josh Lester singled off Carson Seymour to push the Sultanes' win probability up 8.0 percent, trimming the deficit momentarily and representing the visitors' sharpest threat of the afternoon. That swing was answered immediately in the bottom half when Willy Adames deposited a home run off Jake Higginbotham, a blow worth 8.0 percent in win probability that effectively ended any competitive tension. The Giants then poured on five more runs in the eighth to finalize a 10-2 margin.
Among individual performers, Jared Oliva led all batters with a WPA of plus-7.5 percent and an RE24 of plus-0.9, while Josh Lester paced Monterrey at plus-6.6 percent WPA despite his team's loss, and Jung Hoo Lee finished at plus-5.6 percent WPA. On the mound, Tristan Beck led San Francisco's pitching staff with a WPA of plus-5.3 percent, followed by Matt Gage at plus-5.0 percent and Caleb Kilian at plus-4.8 percent, as the trio collectively suppressed Monterrey to seven hits and kept the Giants' probability ceiling firmly intact.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.