San Diego routed Seattle 10-3 at Peoria Stadium on March 23, 2026, with the Padres pulling away decisively in the eighth inning to close out a game the DiamondIQ model had favored from the start. The model entered with a 67 percent home win probability for San Diego and finished at 100 percent, reflecting how thoroughly the Padres controlled the outcome once the decisive frame unfolded.
The eighth inning was where the game was effectively settled, and it featured the sharpest win-probability swings in either direction. Brady O'Brien's single off Bradgley Rodriguez added 17.2 percent win probability for Seattle, briefly representing the Mariners' last credible threat, but Dominic Canzone immediately erased that momentum by grounding into a double play, a swing of minus 17.3 percent that effectively ended Seattle's chances. On the San Diego side, Romeo Sanabria's home run off Reese Lumpkin added 12.8 percent win probability, and walks to Ethan Salas and Clay Dungan off Lumpkin and Casey Hintz added 11.6 and 11.3 percent respectively, fueling an eight-run inning that turned a competitive game into a rout.
Among individual performers, Luis Castillo led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 24.3 percent, while Jason Adam and Carlos Vargas each added 8.3 percent on the mound for San Diego. Offensively, O'Brien topped all batters with plus 21.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.2 despite the team loss, while Dungan finished at plus 11.3 percent WPA and Randy Arozarena contributed plus 10.4 percent WPA for the Padres. Seattle finished with eight hits but committed two errors, and San Diego's seven hits were concentrated with maximum damage in the eighth to produce the lopsided final margin.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.