The New York Yankees defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 6-2 at George M. Steinbrenner Field on March 22, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate largely anticipated, with the home side carrying a 75% pre-game win probability that climbed steadily to 100% by game's end. New York's offense broke a scoreless tie in the bottom of the fourth inning, when J.C. Escarra laced a single off Aaron Nola that added 12.7% to the Yankees' win probability, the single largest swing of the game. Aaron Judge extended the advantage in the fifth with a home run off Nola, a blow worth 8.1% in win probability, pushing the Yankees to a 4-0 lead and effectively sealing Nola's difficult afternoon against a lineup that collected 12 hits on the day.
Philadelphia mounted its most credible threat in the seventh and eighth innings, but the rally was largely neutralized by circumstance and execution. Bryce Harper delivered a double off Camilo Doval in the top of the seventh that shifted win probability by 10.1% in the Phillies' favor, and Kyle Schwarber followed with a home run off Tim Hill in the eighth worth 8.1%, accounting for both Philadelphia runs in the frame. However, Edmundo Sosa's ground-ball double play earlier in the seventh, also off Doval, erased 12.7% of Philadelphia's probability in a single swing, blunting any real momentum the visitors might have built.
Among individual performers, Ryan McMahon led all batters with a 11.2% WPA contribution and a RE24 of plus-0.8, while Judge finished at plus-9.5% WPA and plus-0.9 RE24 to pace the Yankees' offense. Harper's plus-8.3% WPA and plus-0.7 RE24 stood as the Phillies' most productive individual effort. On the mound, starter Will Warren was the game's most impactful pitcher, posting a plus-9.0% WPA as New York's staff combined to hold Philadelphia to just four hits through the first seven innings before the Schwarber surge made the final score respectable.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.