The Miami Marlins walked off with a 4-3 victory over the New York Mets on March 22, 2026, at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium, completing a late comeback that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 52 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Miami trailed entering the ninth inning and needed a dramatic sequence against Mets reliever Parker Carlson to close it out, erasing what had been a three-run Mets advantage built in the fourth inning.
The decisive moments came in rapid succession in the bottom of the ninth. Jay Beshears delivered the defining blow of the game, a triple off Carlson that registered a win-probability swing of plus 63.1 percent and served as the single largest play of the contest by a wide margin. Spencer Bramwell followed with a sacrifice fly that added another plus 16.4 percent to Miami's win probability, plating the game-winning run and completing the rally. Those two plays bookended a tense sequence, though Miami had been held in check in the eighth, where Jesús Bastidas's pop out off Carlson represented the game's second-largest single-play swing at minus 16.5 percent, briefly deflating the Marlins' chances before Beshears revived them entirely.
Among the individual performers, Beshears finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 57.5 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.1, while Bramwell posted plus 20.5 percent WPA to complement his game-ending knock. On the New York side, Bo Bichette was the standout offensive contributor, his fourth-inning double generating plus 14.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.5, with Brett Baty adding a single in the same frame worth plus 12.2 percent. On the mound, Tyler Zuber led Miami's pitching staff with plus 17.6 percent WPA, followed by Mets starters David Peterson at plus 12.1 percent and Ben Simon at plus 9.7 percent. The Marlins finished with nine hits and committed two errors, while the Mets went seven for seven in the error column, going errorless in a losing effort.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.