The Seattle Mariners defeated the Chicago White Sox 4-2 at Camelback Ranch on March 22, 2026, handing the home side a loss despite Chicago entering with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a 66 percent pre-game win probability. Seattle built its lead incrementally, scoring single runs in the second and fourth innings before adding two more in the eighth, while the White Sox managed only a sixth-inning run and a late eighth-inning home run that made the final margin closer than the game's flow suggested.
The decisive stretch came in the eighth inning, where the action cut both ways. Reese McGuire's home run off José A. Ferrer added 8.2 percent to Chicago's win probability and briefly injected life into the White Sox rally, while Sammy Siani's pop out off Chase Plymell in the top half had already shifted 8.5 percent toward Seattle. The game's most consequential sequence arrived in the bottom of the ninth, when Adam Hackenberg singled off Cooper Criswell to move Chicago's probability 14.5 percent in the right direction, only for Samuel Zavala's strikeout to close the door with a 14.7 percent swing back toward Seattle, the single largest probability shift of the night. Bryan Woo was the dominant force on the mound, contributing 27.6 percent of win probability added among pitchers, supported by Andrés Muñoz at 9.7 percent and Lucas Sims at 6.6 percent. Despite out-hitting the Mariners seven to four, Chicago's inability to string together damage left them on the wrong end of a disciplined Seattle pitching performance.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.