The St. Louis Cardinals took a 3-2 decision over the Houston Astros on March 22, 2026, at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, with the DiamondIQ model having set the home side's pre-game win probability at just 33% and dropping it to 0% by game's end. St. Louis scratched across runs in the third, sixth, and seventh innings while holding Houston to a pair, getting contributions from multiple sources across the lineup and pitching staff to secure the win on the road.
The game's decisive sequence unfolded across the final two innings. In the top of the sixth, Nathan Church delivered a double off Steven Okert that carried a win-probability swing of plus-17.6 percentage points, giving St. Louis a meaningful cushion. Houston mounted a response in the bottom of the eighth when Jack Winkler doubled off George Soriano to inject plus-13.4 percentage points of win probability into the Houston side, but a Jason Schiavone groundout off Soriano two batters later swung the window back in St. Louis's favor by minus-18.7 percentage points, effectively stalling the rally. Soriano finished as the highest-leverage pitcher in the game, contributing plus-23.3% WPA across his outing. The game's single biggest play came in the bottom of the ninth, when CJ Alexander struck out against Luis Gastelum to close the door, a moment that shifted win probability by plus-31.6 percentage points from the Cardinals' perspective.
Jordan Walker's home run off Cristian Javier in the top of the third provided the game's first crooked number and accounted for plus-10.5 percentage points of win-probability movement. Javier ultimately logged plus-20.3% WPA in his start despite yielding the blast. Among Cardinals hitters, Church was the most productive by run-environment metric with a RE24 of plus-1.1, while Winkler's eighth-inning double stood as the most impactful individual plate appearance for Houston at plus-0.6 RE24. AJ Blubaugh also contributed plus-11.0% WPA for St. Louis out of the bullpen as the Cardinals maintained clean play throughout, finishing without an error on either side.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.