The Minnesota Twins defeated the Atlanta Braves 7-3 at Lee Health Sports Complex on March 22, 2026, in a game that was far closer in pregame expectations than the final margin suggested. The DiamondIQ model's estimate gave Minnesota just an 18% chance of winning before first pitch, yet that figure climbed to 100% by game's end as the Twins methodically pulled away after a quiet early innings.
The decisive moment came in the bottom of the fifth, when Luke Keaschall delivered a home run off Reynaldo López that shifted win probability by 34.7 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game. Byron Buxton followed with another home run, this one off Jack Dashwood, adding another 11.7 points to Minnesota's advantage and effectively turning a competitive contest into a comfortable lead. The fifth inning accounted for four of Minnesota's seven runs and represented the clearest turning point of the afternoon. Orlando Arcia extended the Twins' lead further with a run-scoring single off Anderson Pilar in the seventh, worth 7.4 percentage points of win probability. On the Atlanta side, DaShawn Keirsey Jr.'s groundout against Kody Funderburk in the top of the sixth represented the Braves' most damaging missed opportunity, costing the club 6.4 percentage points of win probability.
Keaschall finished as the game's top performer by WPA, posting a plus-31.1% figure alongside a RE24 of plus-2.1. Buxton contributed plus-15.8% WPA and plus-1.2 RE24, while Arcia added plus-7.4% WPA and plus-1.0 RE24. Minnesota's bullpen supported the offensive outburst effectively, with Matt Bowman, Kody Funderburk, and Taj Bradley each posting positive WPA figures of plus-11.7%, plus-10.7%, and plus-9.8% respectively. Atlanta finished with six hits and no errors but could not recover from the fifth-inning damage.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.