Colorado handed Oakland a 6-5 defeat on March 22 at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, rallying from a 4-0 deficit to take the win in a game the DiamondIQ model's estimate moved from a 59 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The Athletics struck first and struck hard, with Tyler Soderstrom launching a home run off Michael Lorenzen in the third inning — a swing worth +14.4 percent in win probability — to push Oakland's lead to 4-0 at that point. The game appeared well in hand for the visitors through six innings, but Colorado's seventh proved decisive.
The bottom of the seventh against J.T. Ginn unraveled Oakland's advantage entirely. Willi Castro delivered a single that shifted win probability by +15.5 percent, and Edouard Julien followed with a home run that swung the needle another +17.3 percent, the single biggest play of the game. That three-run seventh gave Colorado a 6-4 lead it would not relinquish. Oakland managed a run in the eighth to pull within one, but in the top of the ninth, Brayan Buelvas grounded into a double play off TJ Shook, a sequence that cost the Athletics 15.7 percent in win probability and effectively closed the door.
Among the game's top performers by the model's accounting, Ryan Ritter led all players with a +16.8 percent WPA figure alongside a +1.3 RE24, with his fifth-inning home run off Mark Leiter Jr. credited at +12.4 percent on its own. Castro finished with matching WPA and RE24 figures to Ritter. On the mound, Jeffrey Springs was the standout, posting a team-leading +23.3 percent WPA, with TJ Shook adding +15.2 percent in his shutdown ninth inning work.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.