Cincinnati defeated Chicago 11-7 at Goodyear Ballpark on March 21, 2026, in a game that opened as a near coin flip — the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave the Reds a 52 percent pre-game home win probability — but ended with the model's final read at 100 percent in Cincinnati's favor. The Reds fell behind early, surrendering two runs in the second and two more in the fourth to Chicago, but a five-run fifth inning proved to be the turning point. Jose Trevino's home run off Nick Altermatt, which carried a win-probability swing of plus-23.6 percent, anchored that rally, and Elly De La Cruz added a triple off Sean Newcomb worth plus-16.1 percent, collectively swinging the game's momentum decisively toward Cincinnati. The White Sox briefly threatened in the eighth, when Everson Pereira's single off Sam Moll generated the game's second-largest positive swing at plus-25.5 percent, trimming the deficit and tightening the contest before Cincinnati answered with four runs in the bottom of the ninth to seal the outcome.
P.J. Higgins was Cincinnati's most impactful performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with a WPA of plus-39.2 percent and an RE24 of plus-3.7, highlighted by a ninth-inning home run off Frankeli Arias that added 33.4 percentage points of win probability in a single swing. Everson Pereira led Chicago's contributors with a WPA of plus-34.7 percent and an RE24 of plus-3.7, while Trevino finished at plus-24.0 percent WPA and plus-2.0 RE24. On the mound, Jake Palisch and Connor Phillips each contributed plus-13.5 percent WPA for Cincinnati, with Pierce Johnson adding plus-10.0 percent. Will Banfield's ninth-inning strikeout against Arias represented the game's most damaging single negative outcome for the Reds, registering minus-20.5 percent WPA, though Cincinnati's lineup had already done more than enough to put the final score out of reach. The White Sox finished with nine hits and an error against Cincinnati's 11 hits and two errors.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.