Baltimore held off Philadelphia 10-8 at Ed Smith Stadium on March 21, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 60 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The game turned decisively in the bottom of the sixth inning, when the Orioles erased what had been a precarious situation by putting up five runs against Phillies reliever Jonathan Hernández. The two most impactful swings of the entire game came in that frame: Jhonkensy Noel's home run added 25.6 percent to Baltimore's win probability, and Weston Wilson's double earlier in the inning contributed an additional 17.3 percent, together accounting for the largest single-inning probability swing of the contest. Philadelphia had created genuine tension in the top of the fourth, where Otto Kemp's single off Ben Vespi lifted the Phillies' win probability by 18.5 percent and Christian Cairo's single off Levi Wells added another 11.2 percent, giving Philadelphia a 3-1 lead at that point. Victor Figueroa's single off Lou Trivino III in the bottom of the seventh, worth 11.4 percent, helped Baltimore absorb a two-run Phillies response and put the game firmly out of reach.
Noel was the clear standout on the night, finishing with a WPA of plus-29.2 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.7, numbers that reflect how profoundly his sixth-inning blast reshaped the outcome. Wilson supported him with a WPA of plus-18.7 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.6, while Kemp led Philadelphia's contributors at plus-15.2 percent WPA despite being on the losing side. On the mound, Ryan Cusick led Baltimore's pitching staff with a WPA of plus-6.9 percent, followed by Tyler Wells at plus-6.0 percent and Yaramil Hiraldo at plus-5.5 percent. The Phillies finished with nine hits and no errors but could not overcome the damage done in that pivotal sixth, as Baltimore's eleven hits proved just enough to secure the two-run victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.