The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the San Diego Padres 6-1 on March 21, 2026, at American Family Fields of Phoenix, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's win probability estimate from 48 percent before first pitch to 100 percent by game's end. The game remained scoreless through three innings before Milwaukee broke it open decisively in the fourth, when William Contreras launched a home run off Randy Vásquez that added 19.4 percentage points of win probability in a single swing — the most impactful play of the contest. Jake Bauers followed with another home run off Vásquez in the same inning, pushing Milwaukee's probability up an additional 8.5 points and effectively putting the game out of reach. San Diego's lone threat came in the top of the third, where Mason McCoy's double generated a 6.4-point swing in the Padres' favor, but Jase Bowen's fielders choice out two batters later erased that momentum with a 6.1-point swing back toward Milwaukee.
William Contreras was the game's most impactful offensive performer, finishing with a cumulative WPA of plus 19.8 percent and an RE24 of plus 1.9, numbers that reflected his central role in the Brewers' decisive fourth-inning outburst. Jackson Chourio added a home run off Vásquez in the sixth that contributed a further 5.4 points of win probability and closed his night at plus 8.0 percent WPA and plus 1.1 RE24, while Bauers posted plus 6.9 percent WPA and plus 0.6 RE24. On the mound, Robert Gasser was the game's standout, generating plus 26.4 percent WPA to lead all pitchers on either side. DL Hall and David Morgan contributed plus 2.9 and plus 0.4 percent WPA respectively in support, as Milwaukee's pitching staff held San Diego to a single run on six hits while committing no errors.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.