The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Miami Marlins 7-4 at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on March 21, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model anticipated from the outset, assigning the Cardinals a 73% pre-game win probability that ultimately climbed to 100% by the final out. St. Louis controlled the game through a combination of timely pitching and key extra-base hits, while Miami's most significant offensive burst came in a single inning that ultimately proved insufficient.
The decisive sequence unfolded in the fourth inning, when Miami briefly threatened to upend the Cardinals' advantage. Connor Norby hit a home run off Mason Molina that shifted win probability by plus-10.1%, and Griffin Conine followed with another home run off Molina adding another plus-13.3% swing, representing the two largest single plays for the Marlins in the contest. However, St. Louis answered emphatically. Thomas Saggese hit a home run off Josh Ekness in the bottom of the sixth that swung win probability by plus-11.2% in the Cardinals' favor, effectively restoring their grip on the game. A double play by Jalin Flores in the bottom of the seventh off Jack Ralston further deflated Miami's hopes, registering a minus-6.9% win-probability impact against the Marlins.
Among individual performers, Conine led Miami with a combined plus-18.3% WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.1, adding a single off Matt Pushard in the sixth for another plus-5.5% contribution, but his efforts were not enough. For St. Louis, Saggese finished with plus-14.5% WPA and the game's top RE24 mark at plus-2.4, while Alec Burleson contributed plus-8.4% WPA and plus-1.9 RE24. On the mound, Matt Pushard led Cardinals pitchers with plus-13.7% WPA, supported by Max Rajcic at plus-8.1% and Packy Naughton at plus-7.2%, a collective performance that kept Miami's lineup in check through the final innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.