The Athletics and Los Angeles Dodgers played to a 5-5 tie on March 21, 2026, at Camelback Ranch, a result that erased what the DiamondIQ model's estimate had set as a 76 percent pre-game home win probability for Los Angeles, a figure that fell to zero by the final out. Oakland struck first and hardest in the top of the second, plating three runs against Emmet Sheehan, a rally that proved decisive in shaping the game's probability landscape. Los Angeles chipped away with single runs in the third and fourth innings, then got even closer thanks to Alex Freeland's home run off Hogan Harris in the bottom of the fourth, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 22.0 percent and represented the single largest WPA play of the contest.
The Athletics answered in the top of the fifth, and Jack Suwinski extended the Oakland lead with a home run off Luis Medina in the bottom half for the Dodgers, a plus-13.4 percent WPA swing that kept Los Angeles within striking distance. The Dodgers added a run in the seventh and Oakland responded with one in the eighth, setting up a tense ninth inning in which Kellon Lindsey's groundout off Diego Barrera closed the door on a potential Los Angeles walkoff, shifting win probability by plus 14.0 percent in Oakland's favor and preserving the deadlock.
Among position players, Tommy White led all batters with a plus-31.8 percent WPA and plus-1.6 RE24, while Jack Suwinski followed at plus-26.6 percent WPA and plus-2.0 RE24, the highest run-expectancy contribution of any hitter on either side. On the mound, Justin Sterner paced the pitching staff with a plus-16.9 percent WPA, followed by Christian Suarez at plus-13.5 percent and Abel Mercedes at plus-10.9 percent, a trio that collectively helped Athletics pitching hold the Dodgers in check despite a Los Angeles advantage of eight hits to four on the day.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.