The Los Angeles Angels closed out a 4-3 victory over the Chicago White Sox on March 20, 2026, at Tempe Diablo Stadium, completing a win that was effectively secured in the opening inning. The Angels plated all four of their runs in the bottom of the first, building a lead that held through eight innings of White Sox futility. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with the Angels as a modest favorite at 54% home win probability, but by the final out that figure had climbed to 100%.
The Angels' pitching staff was the story of the game. Jakob Guardado was the single most impactful performer on the night, finishing with a model-leading +22.7% WPA for the pitching staff, navigating what became a tense ninth inning. José Soriano contributed +14.0% WPA, and Tanner Murray's pop out in the second inning off Soriano represented one of the biggest momentum-suppressing moments of the game at -8.8% WPA against the White Sox. Chase Silseth added +6.3% WPA in support.
The White Sox mounted their only serious threat in the ninth, when Guardado entered in a save situation and briefly saw the game tighten. Kyle Lodise singled for a +8.0% WPA swing, and Bryce Eblin drew a walk off Houston Harding worth +9.9% WPA, pushing the DiamondIQ model's estimate toward something resembling a contest. However, Drake Logan struck out for -9.0% WPA, and Anthony DePino grounded into a double play that swung win probability -21.8%, effectively ending the rally and the game. Among White Sox batters, Lodise and Eblin led in WPA at +8.0% and +9.9% respectively, while Bryce Teodosio posted +7.6% WPA despite finishing with a -0.5 RE24.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.