The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the San Diego Padres 4-3 at Camelback Ranch on March 20, 2026, improving the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Dodgers win from 70 percent before first pitch to a certainty by the final out. Los Angeles built its margin gradually, scoring once in the second and twice more in the fifth, while San Diego could not string together enough offense against a Dodgers pitching staff that surrendered just three runs on six hits.
The pivotal sequence came in the top of the sixth, when Ramón Laureano connected for a home run off Edwin Díaz, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 17.8 percent and represented the single most consequential play of the game. That blast cut the deficit and made the final innings competitive, but San Diego could not complete the comeback. Evan Shaw closed the door in the ninth, recording strikeouts of Nick Schnell and Nick Solak that collectively erased 26.3 percentage points of Padres win probability and effectively ended the threat. Earlier, Ty France grounded into a double play in the fourth against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a minus 9.1 percent swing that stalled a San Diego opportunity before it developed.
Laureano finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a plus 26.2 percent WPA and plus 2.1 RE24, though his effort came in a losing cause. On the Dodgers side, Max Muncy contributed plus 10.2 percent WPA and a plus 1.4 RE24, while Teoscar Hernández added plus 8.9 percent WPA anchored by a fifth-inning walk off Logan Gillaspie that registered plus 11.0 percent on its own. Yoshinobu Yamamoto led the Dodgers pitching staff with plus 12.3 percent WPA, followed by Marco Gonzales at plus 9.5 percent and Antoine Kelly at plus 8.1 percent, as Los Angeles held San Diego to a single error-free afternoon from the mound.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.