The Miami Marlins defeated the Washington Nationals 3-2 at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on March 20, 2026, handing Washington a tight loss despite the DiamondIQ model entering the game giving Miami only a 38% chance of winning at home. The decisive blow came in the bottom of the third inning, when Agustín Ramírez drove a double off Foster Griffin that shifted win probability by 12.4 points in Miami's favor, representing the single largest swing of the game. The Nationals managed a response of sorts in the top of the fifth, when Drew Millas singled off Anthony Bender to nudge Washington's chances upward by 9.9 points, but that momentum proved short-lived. Millas was also at the center of the game's second-largest negative swing, striking out against Tyler Phillips in the top of the seventh in a moment that cost Washington 10.4 points of win probability, effectively deflating any realistic comeback bid.
On the mound, Miami's pitching staff was the story. Chris Paddack led all pitchers with a WPA contribution of plus 16.8%, while Calvin Faucher added 15.2% and recorded the final out when Daylen Lile flied out in the ninth, a play that cost Washington 7.1 points. Pete Fairbanks contributed another 10.8 points to the Miami pitching ledger, and the staff combined to hold Washington to just five hits while committing no errors against one. Offensively for Miami, Ramírez was supported by Johnny Olmstead and Ronny Cruz, who posted WPA figures of plus 7.1% and plus 6.4% respectively, with Ramírez leading all batters in run expectancy added at plus 0.9 RE24. Washington's lone error contributed to a final line of 2 runs on 5 hits, not enough to overcome a Marlins club that the DiamondIQ model ultimately gave 100% win probability by game's end.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.