The Miami Marlins defeated the Houston Astros 7-4 on March 20, 2026, at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, overcoming an early Houston scoring push to pull away decisively in the seventh inning. The DiamondIQ model had opened with a 55 percent pre-game win probability favoring Houston, but that number collapsed to zero by the final out as Miami's offense found its footing against the Astros' pitching staff.
The decisive moment came in the top of the seventh, when Dillon Lewis launched a home run off Logan VanWey that swung win probability by 50.9 percent in Miami's favor — by far the most impactful single play of the contest. That swing effectively ended Houston's competitive window. Earlier, in the bottom of the sixth, Carlos Pérez had kept Houston within range with a single off Cade Gibson that added 18.1 percent win probability for the Astros, briefly offering the home side a path back into the game. Lewis finished as the top performer by both WPA and RE24, posting plus-50.9 percent and plus-3.5 respectively, while Pérez and Joey Loperfido also contributed positively at plus-12.6 and plus-9.0 percent WPA on the offensive side.
On the mound, Eury Pérez was the standout, generating plus-12.6 percent WPA for Miami, aided by a key second-inning strikeout of Nick Allen that erased 11.4 percent win probability from the Astros. Lake Bachar and Bryan Abreu added plus-6.3 and plus-6.0 percent WPA respectively, with Abreu helping close out a game in which Miami outscored Houston 4-0 in the seventh inning alone. The Marlins finished with six hits and no errors, while Houston managed nine hits but could not convert them into enough runs to threaten Miami's late advantage.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.