The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the New York Mets 4-3 at Clover Park on March 20, 2026, holding on after the Mets made a late push in the eighth inning. St. Louis built its lead in the top of the fifth, when Iván Herrera hit a three-run home run off Bryan Hudson that added 17.0 percentage points to the Cardinals' win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate, pushing their run total to four. The Mets had been held scoreless through seven innings and entered the game as slight underdogs, with the DiamondIQ model placing their pre-game win probability at 46 percent.
New York mounted a meaningful threat in the bottom of the eighth when D'Andre Smith doubled off Austin Love, a swing play that shifted win probability 21.4 points in the Mets' favor and brought the deficit to one run. However, Vidal Bruján's groundout to end the inning erased much of that momentum, costing the Mets 19.9 points of win probability and stranding any potential tying run. Matthew Liberatore was the Cardinals' most impactful pitcher on the evening, contributing 23.8 percentage points of win probability added, while Brooks Raley and Luke Weaver each added positive contributions out of the bullpen.
The Cardinals closed out the game in the ninth when Luis Gastelum struck out Branny De Oleo, the highest single-play swing of the night at 27.0 points, sealing a Cardinals win and dropping the Mets' final win probability to zero. De Oleo finished as one of the top performers by WPA at plus-20.7 percentage points, reflecting the significance of the at-bat even in defeat. Smith's double remained the Mets' most productive individual moment, pairing his 21.4 WPA with a run expectancy contribution of plus-1.6 RE24, while Herrera led St. Louis position players with 14.7 WPA and 1.5 RE24 on the strength of his fifth-inning home run.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.