The Toronto Blue Jays held off the Minnesota Twins 2-1 at Lee Health Sports Complex on March 20, 2026, completing a narrow road victory that the DiamondIQ model had put at just a 39 percent pregame probability for the home side. Toronto manufactured both of its runs in measured fashion, adding one in the second inning and another in the fifth, while Minnesota's lone run came in the ninth — too late to alter the outcome. The Blue Jays out-hit the Twins ten to six, though Toronto committed two errors to match Minnesota's two, leaving the game tighter than the pitching lines alone might suggest.
The decisive sequence unfolded in the bottom of the ninth, where Minnesota mounted its only genuine threat against Lazaro Estrada. Noah Cardenas opened the inning with a double that shifted win probability by plus-10.9 percent in the Twins' favor, briefly putting the tying run in scoring position. Ben Ross then recorded a flyout that swung the needle back minus-8.4 percent for Minnesota. The game's single largest probability swing, however, came on a pickoff of Cardenas at second base credited to Luis Fragoza, a play that added plus-31.6 percent to Toronto's chances and effectively ended any realistic Twins comeback. Minnesota scored its consolation run on the inning but could not push across the equalizer.
Fragoza finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-31.6 percent, while Cardenas contributed plus-10.9 percent and Brooks Lee added plus-9.1 percent with a plus-0.8 RE24 to pace Minnesota's offensive side. On the mound, Max Scherzer led all pitchers with plus-20.6 percent WPA for Toronto, aided by Orlando Arcia's fourth-inning ground-into-double-play off Scherzer that suppressed a Minnesota threat by minus-8.3 percent. Chase Lee added plus-17.7 percent WPA in relief, and Joe Mantiply contributed plus-7.5 percent to close out the Blue Jays' series of strong pitching performances. The DiamondIQ model finished with Minnesota's win probability at zero percent.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.