The Toronto Blue Jays handed the New York Yankees a lopsided 11-0 defeat on March 19, 2026, at TD Ballpark, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Toronto win climbing from 38 percent before first pitch all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The Yankees managed just three hits and committed no errors, but their offense was effectively neutralized throughout, leaving the Blue Jays to build a commanding lead through the middle innings. Toronto scored in the first, third, fourth, and fifth frames, with the bulk of the damage coming in that fourth inning, where they plated four runs to push the game firmly out of reach.
The decisive stretch came in the third and fourth innings against Yankees starter Ryan Weathers. In the bottom of the third, an Addison Barger single added 8.1 percent to Toronto's win probability, and a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. single extended that swing by another 9.8 percent, the single most impactful offensive play of the game according to the DiamondIQ model. George Springer then delivered a home run in the fourth inning off Weathers that added 9.2 percent to Toronto's win probability, continuing the punishment. The only notable swing in New York's favor came in the top of the second, when Yanquiel Fernandez struck out against Cody Ponce, a moment that shifted win probability 7.4 percent away from the Yankees.
On the individual ledger, Barger led all position players with a combined WPA of plus-13.4 percent and a RE24 of plus-0.3, contributing across multiple plate appearances. Springer posted the highest RE24 of any batter at plus-3.0, reflecting the direct run-production value of his home run, while Guerrero added plus-9.6 percent WPA and a plus-0.5 RE24. On the mound, Cody Ponce was the standout performer of the afternoon, generating plus-24.3 percent WPA for Toronto, a figure that underscores how thoroughly he suppressed the Yankees lineup and anchored what became a dominant pitching performance.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.