The Philadelphia Phillies routed the Tampa Bay Rays 8-2 at BayCare Ballpark on March 19, 2026, in a game that was never particularly close after the middle innings. The DiamondIQ model entered with a 63 percent home win probability favoring Philadelphia, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100 percent as the Phillies posted runs in four of nine half-innings while limiting Tampa Bay to just two hits and committing no errors.
The decisive stretch came in the fifth and sixth innings, where the game effectively ended as a contest. Bryson Stott delivered the single biggest swing of the afternoon, a home run off Drew Rasmussen in the bottom of the fifth that added 15.7 percent to Philadelphia's win probability. That blow bookended a damaging top half of the inning for the Phillies bullpen, as Alfonzo Martinez and Ryan Vilade both went deep off José Alvarado, adding 10.9 and 9.1 percent in win probability respectively for Tampa Bay's only sustained threat. Philadelphia responded immediately and then pushed further ahead in the sixth when Otto Kemp connected for another home run against Rasmussen, a swing worth 7.9 percent in win probability. Earlier, Adolis García had given the Phillies a cushion with a third-inning home run off Rasmussen worth 8.6 percent. On the pitching side, Zach Pop was Philadelphia's most valuable arm by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, contributing 9.6 percent in win probability, with Jhoan Duran adding another 5.0 percent in support.
Stott finished as the game's top individual performer with a cumulative WPA of plus 17.3 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.5, while Martinez led Tampa Bay's contributors at plus 12.3 percent WPA despite the loss. Brandon Marsh rounded out Philadelphia's top performers at plus 8.1 percent WPA and plus 1.3 RE24. The Phillies' 11-hit, zero-error effort against a Tampa Bay club that managed only two hits told the story cleanly: Philadelphia controlled the game from the second inning forward and never allowed the Rays a realistic path back into it.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.