The Baltimore Orioles handled the Pittsburgh Pirates 5-2 at Ed Smith Stadium on March 19, 2026, turning what began as an even contest into a comfortable home win. The DiamondIQ model entered the day giving Baltimore a 40% chance of winning and finished at 100%, a swing driven almost entirely by a two-inning stretch in the second and third that put the game effectively out of reach.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the second, where Jhonkensy Noel connected on a home run off Gregory Soto that shifted Baltimore's win probability by plus 10.1 points, the single largest play of the game. Later in that same frame, a Luis Vázquez groundout added another 9.3 points of win probability in Baltimore's favor, a reflection of how the inning's broader context was squeezing Pittsburgh's chances. Samuel Basallo then extended the lead in the bottom of the third with a home run off Mike Clevinger, adding 9.8 points of win probability and pushing the Orioles to a position from which Pittsburgh never recovered. The Pirates' best response came in the top of the fifth, when Bryan Reynolds singled off Trevor Rogers to spark a two-run frame that accounted for Pittsburgh's entire scoring output, but the deficit proved too large.
Among individual performers, Basallo led all players with a WPA of plus 13.2 and an RE24 of plus 3.1, while Noel contributed plus 8.9 WPA and Vázquez added plus 8.1. On the pitching side, Trevor Rogers was the standout, posting a plus 15.2 WPA to pace all pitchers in the game. Ryan Helsley and Grant Wolfram each provided additional relief support, contributing plus 5.0 and plus 4.5 WPA respectively. Pittsburgh managed nine hits but was unable to convert them into runs outside the fifth, finishing with a clean error column that offered no consolation in the final margin.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.