The Seattle Mariners erased a three-run deficit with a six-run seventh inning to defeat the Athletics 6-4 at Hohokam Stadium on March 19, 2026. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Oakland entering the day as a 64 percent favorite at home, but that probability collapsed to zero by the final out as Seattle's late surge proved decisive.
The game's turning point arrived emphatically in the top of the seventh against Athletics reliever J.T. Ginn. Cal Raleigh delivered the most impactful blow of the afternoon, a double that shifted win probability by plus 33.2 percent and served as the fulcrum of the rally. Ryan Bliss followed with a single worth plus 22.5 percent in win probability, and Mitch Garver added a double of his own, contributing plus 9.8 percent. That three-play sequence off Ginn effectively dismantled Oakland's lead and control of the game in a matter of at-bats. The Athletics had built their cushion in the fourth inning, where a Tyler Soderstrom hit by pitch off Randy Dobnak carried a plus 11.0 percent swing for Oakland, but that advantage ultimately proved insufficient against Seattle's seventh-inning onslaught.
On the mound, Aaron Civale was Seattle's most valuable arm by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with plus 18.7 percent in win probability added, while Dane Dunning contributed plus 9.3 percent in support. By WPA, Raleigh led all position players at plus 29.8 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.5, Bliss checked in at plus 22.2 percent and plus 1.2 RE24, and Garver rounded out the top three at plus 9.9 percent and plus 1.0 RE24. Seattle finished with ten hits to Oakland's six, overcoming its own error alongside the Athletics' to secure the road victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.