The San Francisco Giants rallied past the Colorado Rockies 14-11 at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on March 19, 2026, in a high-scoring affair that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Colorado victory open at 34% and finish at zero. The Giants produced 19 hits against three errors of their own, while the Rockies managed 10 hits and one error in a game that swung repeatedly before San Francisco pulled clear in the late innings.
The decisive moment came in the top of the seventh, when Jerar Encarnacion delivered a double off Jimmy Herget that shifted win probability by 29.3 points in the Giants' favor, the single largest swing of the game. Luis Matos followed with a single off Herget worth another 13.0 points, extending what became a three-run frame for San Francisco. Earlier pivots were nearly as consequential: Christian Koss hit a home run off John Brebbia in the fourth inning for a 15.9-point swing, and Victor Bericoto doubled off Brebbia in the fifth for 14.0 more. Colorado's best response came in the bottom of the fifth, when Willi Castro connected for a home run off Logan Webb worth 13.1 points toward the Rockies, and the eighth inning produced a four-run exchange that briefly tightened matters before the Giants closed out the ninth.
Among position players, Encarnacion led all batters with a 29.3% WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.0, while Drew Gilbert posted 23.6% WPA and the game's top RE24 among hitters at plus-2.4, and Mickey Moniak contributed 18.9% WPA with a RE24 of plus-1.7. On the mound, Ben Peterson was the Giants' most impactful reliever at plus-19.6% WPA, followed by Tomoyuki Sugano at plus-11.7% and Ricardo Estrada at plus-3.0%, a trio that collectively held Colorado at bay through the final frames and secured the three-run victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.