The Colorado Rockies overcame a four-run deficit to defeat the Cincinnati Reds 8-6 at Goodyear Ballpark on March 18, 2026, completing a remarkable comeback that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cincinnati victory from 52 percent before first pitch all the way to zero percent by the final out. The Reds had built their lead through the early innings, plating four runs in the fourth and adding two more in the seventh, but Colorado answered with a stunning six-run eighth inning that proved to be the decisive turn of the game. The Rockies also tacked on an insurance run in the ninth, while Cincinnati's error troubles — the Reds finished with two on the night — contributed to the unraveling.
The eighth inning was where the game's most consequential moments were concentrated. Vimael Machín delivered the single most impactful play of the contest, drawing a walk off Brody Jessee that shifted win probability by plus 20.9 percent in Colorado's favor, and he finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 26.6 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.4. Ethan Hedges followed with a single off Simon Miller worth plus 20.3 percent, finishing the night at plus 19.6 percent WPA. A fielding error by Dyan Jorge off Simon Miller added another plus 13.4 percent swing, further extending the Colorado rally and illustrating how Cincinnati's defensive miscues compounded the damage.
On the pitching side, Keegan Thompson was Colorado's most valuable arm, finishing at plus 16.0 percent WPA. He induced a critical groundout from Tyson Lewis in the bottom of the eighth, a play worth minus 12.9 percent from Cincinnati's perspective, and then retired Francisco Urbaez on a flyout in the ninth that carried a plus 14.4 percent swing in Colorado's favor as the Reds made a late push. Brady Singer also contributed at plus 13.7 percent WPA for Colorado. The DiamondIQ model leans toward this game as one defined by a single catastrophic inning for Cincinnati, with the Reds' bullpen and defense unable to contain a Rockies offense that generated all eight of its runs after the fourth inning.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.