The Seattle Mariners defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 7-3 at Peoria Stadium on March 18, 2026, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected just how decisive the outcome became, moving from a 42 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Seattle built its lead in concentrated bursts, scoring once in the first inning and then delivering the most consequential blow of the afternoon in the bottom of the third, when Luke Raley connected on a home run off Carlos Rodriguez that swung win probability by 27.5 percent in the Mariners' favor. Milwaukee responded with a two-run fourth inning, highlighted by Tyler Black's triple off Emerson Hancock that added 14.6 percent to the Brewers' win probability and momentarily kept the game within reach, but the Mariners answered immediately with a three-run fifth inning that effectively closed the door.
The bottom of the fifth cemented Seattle's control, as Randy Arozarena homered off Easton McGee for a swing of plus 13.6 percent, and Raley followed with a double off the same pitcher worth another 12.4 percent. Those two plays in sequence pushed Milwaukee's chances toward extinction. On the Milwaukee side, Brandon Lockridge grounded into a double play in the top of the seventh against Guillo Zuñiga, a minus 5.7 percent swing that extinguished what little remaining opportunity the Brewers had. Despite out-hitting Seattle 11 to 7, Milwaukee was unable to convert that production into runs at the necessary rate.
Raley was the clear standout of the game by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with a combined WPA of plus 40.1 percent and an RE24 of plus 4.0, numbers that reflected the outsize impact of his home run and double at critical junctures. Arozarena and Tyler Black each posted WPA figures in the plus 17 to 18 percent range with identical RE24 marks of plus 1.7, making them the second and third most impactful offensive contributors respectively. On the pitching side, Cole Wilcox led Seattle's staff with a WPA of plus 6.4 percent, supported by contributions from Michael Rucker at plus 3.3 and Zuñiga at plus 2.9.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.